Q4 China Forecast Update: Navigating a Complex 2022
In 2021, China’s market was hit by a wave of reforms that slowed growth and lifted risk, particularly in the massive real estate sector. Beijing’s policy gamble is that strong exports and tight control over much of the economy will prevent a collapse in growth or a crisis. In our Q4 forecast, we’ll look at how this may play out in 2022, starting with expected developments in Beijing’s policy agenda and then reviewing strength in demand and activity. The reform drive is driven by a transformation that China’s leadership wants to see in the next five years. We’ll wrap up opening comments by looking at how this may lead to structural changes in the economy.