Q2 China Forecast Update
China may be one of the few countries with a recovery this year. More U-shaped than a V, it is likely to be both bumpy and uneven. The threats to growth are readily apparent, ranging from another virus wave and more cautious consumers to clashes with the US. It will, however, look good compared to the rest of the world.
Growth for the next few years will need to be domestically driven, so we’ll start with a review of the main sources of demand from consumers and industry to public spending and construction. All are likely to follow a new growth path in the wake of COVID-19. We’ll then examine the policy settings and the risks that companies may need to manage.